[eccr] Telecom in the Time of Crash by Kas Kalba

Title: Telecom in the Time of Crash by Kas Kalba

Greetings,

The following new Program incidental paper is now available on line:

Kalba, Kas
Telecom in the Time of Crash
[41 pages; November 2002/Incidental Paper]

This paper offers a perspective on how the world’s telecom industry has evolved from a sleepy utility to a competitive marketplace to an industry afflicted by bankruptcy and breakdown. The author traces the origins of the modern industry from AT&T’s breakup to its recent "crash," fostered by aggressive CEOs and investment bankers as well as faulty entrepreneurial visions and business models. He also touches on Europe’s misguided government policies in the case of next-generation mobile licensing and spectrum auctions ("3G"). The paper examines the shift from the largely successful introduction of competition in North America, Europe and developed Asia during the 1980s to the new leadership and financing approaches that were introduced in the mid and late 1990s. It summarizes the twin tendencies of decentralized technology innovation and industry growth (both within the United States and on a world scale) and of centralized industry guidance by financi
al and government entities. The paper assesses which companies have been winners and losers through these dynamic changes, emphasizing how new entrants such as Vodafone, Nokia, Hutchison and Cisco were able to challenge entrenched incumbents, not to mention prevailing theories that a few players would soon dominate the industry. Focusing on the fiber and 3G arenas, the last part of the paper outlines alternative theories of the telecom crash, provides an overall explanation, and addresses where the industry may be headed. The author presents several scenarios of what may come next and discusses the prospects of a new expanded government role. He ends by raising some questions about whether regulatory intervention is necessary to curb recent excesses or whether the market can be assumed to have learned its lesson. ISBN 1-879716-85-2 I-02-2 

You can link directly to the Acrobat PDF version, which can be downloaded or printed
http://pirp.harvard.edu/pubs_pdf/kalba/kalba-i02-2. <http://pirp.harvard.edu/pubs_pdf/kalba/kalba-i02-2.pdf> pdf

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